The climate change debate reminds me of Pascal’s Wager.
Climate change deniers and proponents argue about who’s right, cite studies, parade evidence, and call each other names. Evidence on either side might be compelling and the arguments can be persuasive (or can at raise doubt). Unless you’re a scientist actually involved in a study, you’re left shrugging your shoulders, thinking “Well, I guess that could be right. I don’t know first hand what’s actually true and what’s not.”
Enter Pascal. Pascal proposed that we gamble. He was talking about the existence of God, but we can use the same idea for climate change. Instead of trying to prove it, gamble.
“…Anyone who is incapable of trusting any evidence either for or against God’s existence, must at least face the prospect that infinite happiness is at risk.” [wikipedia] Basically his wager is that acting as if there is a God, with a reward or punishment after death, pays off more than acting as if there isn’t a God. Why? If we live a kind and benevolent life and there isn’t a God, then we haven’t lost anything–we’ve simply been sincere, generous, humble, honest, loyal. If, however, we live a bad life–greedy, mean, stingy, dishonest–and there is a God, then we’re in for a just punishment. In Pascal’s eyes there’s more to win if we act as if there is a God, and a lot to lose if we act as if there isn’t a God.
Now make the same bet with climate change. “Anyone who is incapable of trusting any evidence either for or against God’s existence climate change, must at least face the prospect that infinite happiness the health of the planet and its inhabitants is at risk.” If you follow the same logic, we can act as if climate change isn’t real, and if it isn’t, then fine, no harm done. But if it is real, what we’ve anted up is enormous. If we act as if climate change is real, and it isn’t, we haven’t lost anything and we’ve gained better water and air quality, more flexible sources of energy, more resources for future generations and other species (as well as our for our current generation), and maybe even better weather.
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